It would be funny if it did not feel so close to reality.  As it currently stands, the next steps in the ‎UK’s exit from the EU are precarious (yet again), which is also reflected in the market volatility around ‎the value of the pound.‎

Since our last post we have been tempted to make a series of updates, but on reflection felt that ‎if we had done so the contents would have been quickly overcome by events.  Several challenges ‎to the Prime Minister failed at the end of last week, but a cross-party amendment initiated by Sir ‎Oliver Letwin MP effectively stalled the progress of the new deal agreed with the EU27 when it ‎was approved by 322 votes to 306 on Saturday.  This amendment required the Prime Minister to ‎make the extension request in case the implementing legislation for the new deal failed to be ‎completed by 31 October 2019.  Immediately following this, the planned ‘meaningful vote’ on ‎the new deal was abandoned and, as we predicted, Johnson was forced to write a letter to the ‎European Commission Saturday evening requesting an extension, which he sent unsigned and ‎with an accompanying letter stating that he really does not want an extension.‎

The Prime Minister then sought to bring back the meaningful vote yesterday, but the Speaker of ‎the House of Commons refused to let him do so on the basis that it was an abuse of the House’s ‎time (based on a precedent from 1604).  Faced with that further set-back, the UK Government ‎brought forward the legislation to give effect to the new deal, despite it not having received its ‎acceptance in the up or down meaningful vote that had not gone ahead.   ‎

Further votes are expected tonight with one of them being on the Government’s proposed three-‎day timetable to get the legislation approved, which is being met with a lot of resistance in the ‎House of Commons where more than one MP is arguing that people take more time to buy a ‎kitchen than is being given to this key legislation – and which is over 100 pages in length (see ‎here for the draft ‎bill).‎

If the Government’s timetable is defeated, Prime Minister Johnson wants to abandon the process ‎altogether and seek a general election.  Meanwhile, the European Commission has accepted ‎Johnson’s extension request as valid, but has yet to say if it will agree to give it!‎